Tim Hynes photograph
So the FTSE100 has been crawling its way back above the 4000 mark and the pundits are a-plenty. "Green Shoots"; "Signs of protracted recovery"; "Positive earnings estimates coming out of the US are driving growth" "Case-Schiller index proving US house prices are rising again"... I am sure all this is true, and statistically, there does seem much reason for celebrating the fact that stock markets have been hauling themselves higher.
But for those who invested 10 years ago, they are still significantly out-of-pocket. With 5,000+ insolvencies in the UK, rising unemployment, pay freezes and low interest rates, it seems unlikely that the real economy is going to feel any positive effect from the rising stock market indices for several months yet.
I am a believer in that bearish of fund managers, Hugh Hendry of Eclectica, who has often quoted Mark Twain: 'If you have to swallow a frog, swallow it in the morning. If you have to swallow two, swallow the larger one first. We're still swallowing the large one."