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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

All Hail the FTSE100

Tim Hynes photograph

So the FTSE100 has been crawling its way back above the 4000 mark and the pundits are a-plenty. "Green Shoots"; "Signs of protracted recovery"; "Positive earnings estimates coming out of the US are driving growth" "Case-Schiller index proving US house prices are rising again"... I am sure all this is true, and statistically, there does seem much reason for celebrating the fact that stock markets have been hauling themselves higher.

But for those who invested 10 years ago, they are still significantly out-of-pocket. With 5,000+ insolvencies in the UK, rising unemployment, pay freezes and low interest rates, it seems unlikely that the real economy is going to feel any positive effect from the rising stock market indices for several months yet.

I am a believer in that bearish of fund managers, Hugh Hendry of Eclectica, who has often quoted Mark Twain: 'If you have to swallow a frog, swallow it in the morning. If you have to swallow two, swallow the larger one first. We're still swallowing the large one."

6 comments:

Me said...

ah hilarious! Aus is doing ok, only got one period of negative growth... As for the frog saying, I had my own take on it. "Eat your frogs in the morning!"

Mermaid of Moorgate said...

Hey hun! nice to see you drop by! I can't get access to your blog though me dearie - might you please add me to thy list? x

And yes - frog swallowing is a bit like work - best done in the morning so that you can snooze free in the afternoon.

I did find a baby frog the other day in the garden- the size of my fingernail. I wanted to keep him but alas! he legged it!

electro-kevin said...

Eat the frogs in the morning ... dump the politicians in the afternoon.

I have a horrible feeling that we are in the eye of a hurricane.

electro-kevin said...

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Steven_L said...

Most fund managers are crap, a complete waste of money. One might have a little bit more Glaxo than BP, another a little more Vodafone than Glaxo, and the next a bit more BP than Vodafone.

Though at the end of the cycle most of them only beat the index because the index doesn't count the dividends.

After trawling through hundreds of ther little reports recently I've only found about 3 princes in a big pond full of frogs.

The pensions industry should have a sledgehammer taken to it, employees should have the right to take their employers contribution into a SIPP and keep it in funds of their choosing, well away from these Kermits.

Rant over.

Trubes said...

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Di xx